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Date: Thu, 25 Oct 2001 08:19:23 -0700 (PDT)
From: tradersummary@syncrasy.com
To: vkamins@ect.enron.com
Subject: Syncrasy Daily Trader Summary for Thu, Oct 25, 2001
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[IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE]        Syncrasy, =
LLC?   713.228.8470 Off  713.228.4147 Fax   909 Texas Avenue  Suite 1314  H=
ouston, TX 77002         www.syncrasy.com          Sales:  713.228.4407   D=
evelopment Offices:  970.247.4139 Off  970.247.7951 Fax   835 Main Avenue  =
Suite 221  Durango, CO 81301      =09  =09 [IMAGE]    Complimentary version=
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ersummary@syncrasy.com       Data last updated: Thursday, Oct 25, 2001 at 1=
0:29AM ET    Commentary last updated: Thursday, Oct 25, 2001 at 09:51AM ET =
 Meteorologist: Andy Weingarten... APB Energy/ True Quote     Congratulatio=
ns Andy Weingarten, APB Energy!  Winner of the $50,000 Winter 2000-01 AQUIL=
A/AMS Seasonal Forecasting Competition. For more information please visit: =
AMS  or Aquila    Click here for a definition of 'Average-Daily Maximum Tem=
perature'     Today: Thursday, October 25, 2001   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta=
 Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE=
]    [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 54 +2 ERCOT(SP) 79 +4 FRCC(SE) 85 -1 MAAC(NE) 71 +=
2 MAIN(CTR) 48 -2 MAPP(HP) 41 -2 NPCC(NE) 67 +3 SERC(SE) 77 +2 SPP(SP) 64 N=
C WSCC(NW) 54 -2 WSCC(RK) 52 -1 WSCC(SW) 75 NC     Range Standard Deviation=
 [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 43 44 63 51 49 73 71 73=
 Max 49 52 67 55 55 79 78 78 Min 38 36 61 47 39 69 61 68 Range 11 16 6 8 16=
 10 17 10 StD-P 2.4 3.9 2.1 2.5 4.8 3.5 4.8 2.8 Count 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 =
10    Day 1-5 Discussion:   Powerhouse storm is about to exit. The coldest =
air of the season is about to enter. A significant warm up will commence la=
te in the period.  The "storm of the century", "Superstorm", or whatever yo=
u want to call yesterdays event was over-hyped a bit in my opinion, but sig=
nificant in some respects. There were some large tornadoes in Northern Indi=
ana and the surface low pressure center had one of the lowest readings I ha=
ve seen in an October storm. Otherwise, it was a squall line of t-storms wi=
th a turn to colder and windier weather, things we have certainly seen befo=
re and will see again. The cold front should reach the Atlantic coastline l=
ater today and another line of t-storms may certainly go up along it. We al=
so have some measurable snow in Minnesota this morning and could see "some"=
 lake effect snows! through Friday. Once this storm is off the field, the o=
nly inclement weather threats appear to be the PNW from a trough in the Gul=
f of Alaska and in Florida from something tropical. I do not mean from a na=
med storm or hurricane, but merely that the disturbance originated in the C=
aribbean. A large polar air mass has swept in behind this storm insuring a =
drier and cooler than normal pattern from the Mississippi River and East th=
rough the weekend. The Plains start to warm early next week is ridging star=
ts to evolve in response to troughing off the West Coast. Neither of these =
features look particularly strong in the short term and overall weather in =
the West has a benign look to it.  Tomorrow: Friday, October 26, 2001   Syn=
crasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE]=
[IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]    [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 44 -1 ERCOT(SP) 76 +1 FRCC(S=
E) 76 +1 MAAC(NE) 52 NC MAIN(CTR) 48 NC MAPP(HP) 42 NC NPCC(NE) 49 -1 SERC(=
SE) 65 -1 SPP(SP) 66 NC WSCC(NW) 61 +1 WSCC(RK) 60 +2 WSCC(SW) 76 +1     Ra=
nge Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 4=
0 47 46 57 55 63 69 73 Max 47 58 50 61 63 70 78 77 Min 35 38 41 52 44 56 58=
 68 Range 12 20 9 9 19 14 20 9 StD-P 2.8 5.1 2.5 2.8 5.8 3.8 5.3 2.8 Count =
10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10   Day 3: Saturday, October 27, 2001   Syncrasy's Ch=
oice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [=
IMAGE][IMAGE]    [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 44 +1 ERCOT(SP) 75 +1 FRCC(SE) 69 -2 M=
AAC(NE) 51 +2 MAIN(CTR) 47 NC MAPP(HP) 49 -1 NPCC(NE) 48 +2 SERC(SE) 59 NC =
SPP(SP) 65 NC WSCC(NW) 55 NC WSCC(RK) 66 +2 WSCC(SW) 72 NC     Range Standa=
rd Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 40 56 43 51=
 61 56 69 69 Max 47 62 48 57 68 61 74 73 Min 34 49 40 47 53 50 60 65 Range =
13 13 8 10 15 11 14 8 StD-P 3.5 4.4 2.7 2.7 5.2 3.0 4.6 2.2 Count 8 8 8 8 8=
 8 8 8   Day 4: Sunday, October 28, 2001   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp. =
  Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]    [I=
MAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 50 NC ERCOT(SP) 76 +1 FRCC(SE) 70 -1 MAAC(NE) 50 NC MAIN(=
CTR) 55 NC MAPP(HP) 59 +2 NPCC(NE) 47 NC SERC(SE) 60 -1 SPP(SP) 70 +1 WSCC(=
NW) 54 NC WSCC(RK) 62 +1 WSCC(SW) 70 +1     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE=
] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 46 57 41 48 58 54 69 64 Max 55=
 63 48 54 65 61 75 70 Min 42 51 37 45 52 49 64 62 Range 13 12 11 9 13 12 11=
 8 StD-P 3.9 3.9 2.9 2.1 4.1 3.4 3.3 2.5 Count 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6   Day 5: Mon=
day, October 29, 2001   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix=
    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]    [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 5=
7 +1 ERCOT(SP) 76 +1 FRCC(SE) 76 -1 MAAC(NE) 58 +1 MAIN(CTR) 57 NC MAPP(HP)=
 54 NC NPCC(NE) 52 +1 SERC(SE) 66 -1 SPP(SP) 70 -1 WSCC(NW) 55 +1 WSCC(RK) =
58 -1 WSCC(SW) 68 +3     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT =
HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 50 54 47 49 54 58 69 63 Max 56 58 54 55 61 67 75 =
69 Min 45 50 43 46 49 52 63 60 Range 11 8 11 9 12 15 12 9 StD-P 4.3 3.2 3.1=
 2.2 3.6 4.7 4.3 2.5 Count 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6    Day 6-10 Discussion:  I don't=
 have a lot of change from yesterdays 6-10 day outlook other than advancing=
 things by one day. Warming that kicks in for the Plains advances East.Rela=
tive to normal this will be more pronounced initially in the North than the=
 South though by late in the period all will share. I mentioned an atmosphe=
ric turnaround yesterday and still feel there is potential by the middle of=
 next week to become almost as warm as the recent warm episode. The pattern=
 remains progressive, but not as volatile as recent weeks. Charts show anot=
her trough pushing through the Plains and Eastern U.S. but it does not have=
 the amplitude that the current one does. Therefore, it can't tap the arcti=
c air and bring it down. I have a fairly high confidence level that the fir=
st week of November will be mild for the nation as a whole.  Day 6: Tuesday=
, October 30, 2001   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix   =
 [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]    [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 57 -=
2 ERCOT(SP) 75 NC FRCC(SE) 79 -1 MAAC(NE) 59 NC MAIN(CTR) 56 -1 MAPP(HP) 52=
 -4 NPCC(NE) 53 -2 SERC(SE) 69 NC SPP(SP) 71 +2 WSCC(NW) 54 NC WSCC(RK) 56 =
+2 WSCC(SW) 67 +2     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP =
NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 50 56 47 48 51 60 66 61 Max 55 58 54 54 57 71 74 68 =
Min 47 54 44 44 48 57 60 58 Range 8 4 10 10 9 14 14 10 StD-P 2.7 1.5 3.0 2.=
6 2.6 4.1 4.6 2.7 Count 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5   Day 7: Wednesday, October 31, 200=
1   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  =
[IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]    [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 58 -1 ERCOT(SP) 76 -1=
 FRCC(SE) 81 NC MAAC(NE) 58 -4 MAIN(CTR) 58 NC MAPP(HP) 55 -2 NPCC(NE) 50 -=
5 SERC(SE) 70 NC SPP(SP) 68 +1 WSCC(NW) 54 NC WSCC(RK) 54 NC WSCC(SW) 67 +1=
     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW=
 Mean 53 55 46 48 46 64 68 62 Max 57 58 52 54 55 72 74 67 Min 50 52 41 44 4=
0 61 65 58 Range 7 6 11 10 15 11 9 9 StD-P 2.1 2.2 4.1 3.0 6.0 3.1 3.0 3.1 =
Count 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5   Day 8: Thursday, November  1, 2001   Syncrasy's Cho=
ice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [I=
MAGE][IMAGE]    [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 54 NC ERCOT(SP) 71 +1 FRCC(SE) 73 -1 MA=
AC(NE) 57 +1 MAIN(CTR) 55 NC MAPP(HP) 53 -1 NPCC(NE) 51 -1 SERC(SE) 65 +1 S=
PP(SP) 65 +4 WSCC(NW) 43 NC WSCC(RK) 42 +2 WSCC(SW) 61 +2     Range Standar=
d Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 55 54 54 47 =
47 68 71 64 Max 58 57 56 54 54 73 75 68 Min 54 52 53 43 42 67 68 61 Range 4=
 5 3 11 12 6 7 7 StD-P 1.0 1.6 1.4 4.1 4.3 1.9 1.6 3.1 Count 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 =
5   Day 9: Friday, November  2, 2001   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Vo=
latility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]    [IMAGE=
]   ECAR(CTR) 57 +1 ERCOT(SP) 71 +1 FRCC(SE) 74 -1 MAAC(NE) 58 -1 MAIN(CTR)=
 58 +3 MAPP(HP) 49 +1 NPCC(NE) 54 -1 SERC(SE) 65 +1 SPP(SP) 62 +2 WSCC(NW) =
46 -2 WSCC(RK) 39 +1 WSCC(SW) 62 NC     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [I=
MAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 55 50 55 47 44 67 69 65 Max 56 59 =
55 49 55 69 69 69 Min 52 46 54 46 38 66 69 62 Range 4 13 1 3 17 3 0 7 StD-P=
 1.4 4.4 0.6 1.1 5.5 0.9 0.2 2.7 Count 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4   Day 10: Saturday, =
November  3, 2001   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    =
[IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]    [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 55 +3=
 ERCOT(SP) 65 -1 FRCC(SE) 75 NC MAAC(NE) 61 +2 MAIN(CTR) 50 +4 MAPP(HP) 49 =
+3 NPCC(NE) 56 -1 SERC(SE) 66 NC SPP(SP) 55 +4 WSCC(NW) 45 -6 WSCC(RK) 47 +=
1 WSCC(SW) 65 NC     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP N=
E NW RK SE SP SW Mean 48 45 54 43 40 65 62 57 Max 52 51 57 45 48 67 65 64 M=
in 39 36 49 38 31 62 59 49 Range 13 15 8 7 17 5 6 15 StD-P 4.8 6.0 3.5 2.7 =
8.1 2.5 1.6 7.3 Count 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4    Trader Summary is designed around =
and formatted for the  [IMAGE]Plasma displays, RainbowWall? and DataWall?  =
 Trader Summary can also be viewed from www.syncrasy.com  or     www.apbene=
rgy.com  or  www.truequote.com     [IMAGE]  =09
=09=09=09
